Illinois Congressional District 14 Preview: Can Lauren Underwood Hold Off The Milk Dud?
With its exurban makeup, the 14th Congressional District of Illinois will represent a critical test for Republicans seeking to regain lost ground from the 2018 Midterm elections. The 2020 race between incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood and perennial Republican challenger Jim Oberweis is expected to be one of the tightest races in the country. Underwood is a first-term Congresswoman who defeated former Republican Rep. Randy Hultgren in 2018. Hultgren’s defeat was due in part to the national "Blue Wave" that swept out many Republicans in suburban/exurban areas, but also because he did not take Underwood’s challenge seriously enough. Hultgren was badly outraised by Underwood, and he ended up losing the election by 5% in what was previously considered to be a safe Republican seat.
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A largely exurban District on the outskirts of Chicago, the 14th District is considered to be about 5% more Republicanthan the country as a whole. The District in its current iteration was redrawn in 2010 to be a “safe” district for Republicans. At the time, the Democratic-controlled Illinois State Legislature drew its electoral map to target several Republican districts, and the 14th District was set up to be a Republican vote sink. Democrats purposely put a greater number of Republican voters into the 14th District so that Republican voting power could be limited elsewhere. This is likely why Randy Hultgren, who had served four terms as a Congressman, was caught napping on election day in 2018. He had never faced a close election before, and it is likely he did not appreciate Underwood’s challenge until it was too late.
Lauren Underwood is a candidate that you should never take lightly. A former senior advisor for HHS, Underwood, at the age of 32, became the youngest ever black woman to serve in Congress. She is a potent fundraiser and has racked up a very liberal record in her short time in the House. That liberal voting record is perhaps her greatest liability in what is still considered to be a majority Republican District. Underwood has been considered by pundits to be one of the more vulnerable members of the House and Republicans have been ginning up to take her on since she defeated Hultgren. Republicans, however, nominated an individual who was not their first choice in dairy magnate and Illinois State Senator Jim Oberweis.
Oberweis, a perennial candidate who has lost several races for Senator, Governor and the House, is the owner of Oberweis Dairy, a popular Midwest chain of ice cream stores, dairy farms and fast food restaurants. Due to Oberweis’ numerous defeats he has been branded with the unsavory nickname “The Milk Dud”. To say that the Republican party did not want Oberweis to be their standard-bearer is an understatement. Republicans dropped a staggering $900,000 in attack ads against Oberweis during the 2020 Primary cycle and many Republicans worry that his previous defeats have already branded him as a failure of a candidate. There is also a worry among Illinois Republicans that his stances on immigration are too hardline for the District.
Put together, both Underwood and Oberweis are somewhat more extreme on their respective sides of the political spectrum than the District’s makeup as a whole. The makeup of the 14th District would seemingly favor a moderate Democrat or Republican, but instead we will have neither in this race. Underwood is much more liberal than the District as a whole but Oberweis is a great deal more conservative than the District as well. It is likely that the political winds on the national level will have a big say in who wins this race. If Donald Trump were to win reelection, then there is a good chance that Oberweis will be able to ride Trump’s coattails to victory. However, if Joe Biden were to emerge victorious then it would be nearly impossible for Oberweis to knock off Underwood.
National Democrats are also much more likely to assist Underwood than National Republicans would with Oberweis. Underwood represents the diversity that Democrats want in their party and as a first term Congresswoman she is likely to receive greater assistance in her reelection bid than most candidates would. Oberweis’ ability to self-fund and inability to generate excitement around his candidacy could cause national Republican groups to stay out of the race. Republicans, however, do still believe the 14th District is one of their best pickup opportunities of 2020 and they will dump plenty of money into the District to soften up Underwood. That said, Oberweis has not yet received the necessary national funding needed to fully challenge Underwood and he will need a lot more national Republican party money to be successful.
Of the two candidates, Underwood is more likely to win split-ticket voters due to her incumbency and current fundraising advantage. Oberweis’ status as a perennial candidate will likely be a drag on him and he will be much more reliant on self-funding his campaign than Underwood. Underwood will start as a moderate favorite over Oberweis due to these factors, but she could easily be swept out of office if Donald Trump is able to win the presidency by a decent margin. Once election day nears there will be more clarity on this race, but for now Jim Oberweis appears to be in need of declaring a free ice cream day in order to make up ground.